{
  "label": "Retrospective reproduction of cached 2020 inputs, not historical publication proof or a 2026 forecast.",
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-21T03:03:03.927754+00:00",
  "model": "Later 15-For-50 ordinary least squares with an intercept",
  "reference_repository": "https://github.com/micheas-yimam/15-For-50",
  "reference_commit": "6999dda65061e4775fd3148d60e4ad38f821c312",
  "reference_workbook_sha256": "c38065e689049709ab6c04236e2939d4f0fe219756d8853e8dbc8e5bfea9ee21",
  "supplied_workbook_sha256": "c38065e689049709ab6c04236e2939d4f0fe219756d8853e8dbc8e5bfea9ee21",
  "supplied_workbook_matches_reference": true,
  "source_workbook_unchanged": true,
  "input_handling": "Cached numeric cell values only; workbook never saved or recalculated",
  "training_rows": 96,
  "test_rows": 12,
  "training_years": [
    1988,
    1992,
    1996,
    2000,
    2004,
    2008,
    2012,
    2016
  ],
  "test_years": [
    2020
  ],
  "trailing_or_note_rows_without_selected_fields_ignored": {
    "Train": 0,
    "Test": 18
  },
  "features": [
    "Net Approval Elasticity",
    "National State Difference"
  ],
  "target": "SignedMargin",
  "intercept": -0.16452096194302324,
  "coefficients": {
    "Net Approval Elasticity": 0.31184946698357435,
    "National State Difference": 0.9817705779608653
  },
  "target_sign_check": {
    "formula": "(Blue Votes - Red Votes) / (Blue Votes + Red Votes)",
    "matching_training_rows": 96,
    "checked_training_rows": 96,
    "verified_for_all_training_rows": true,
    "sign": "Positive favors Blue (Democratic); negative favors Red (Republican)",
    "units": "Vote share fraction; multiply by 100 for percentage points; not a probability"
  },
  "target_leakage_diagnostic": {
    "relationship": "National State Difference = SignedMargin - National Signed Margin",
    "matching_rows": 96,
    "checked_rows": 96,
    "absolute_tolerance": 1e-12,
    "maximum_absolute_residual": 0.0,
    "interpretation": "Training uses a feature containing the same election's realized target. Test substitutes a state/national candidate-poll difference. This training/prediction mismatch prevents interpreting the fit as valid out-of-sample forecasting performance."
  },
  "cached_results_comparison": {
    "file_sha256": "90a02506d6ff5c7428f998782555a32193229c2e62be2a61f9a6485fa4d7434b",
    "row_alignment": "Original Test sheet order; results.txt has no state identifiers",
    "row_count": 12,
    "max_absolute_difference": 4.481295359966275e-09,
    "comparison_tolerance": 5.0001e-09,
    "all_match_eight_decimal_rounding": true,
    "meaning": "Numerical reproduction only; not accuracy against election results"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Not a recreation or validation of every model in the 2019 thesis.",
    "Cached Excel inputs are not independently verified historical data vintages.",
    "Git dates and workbook metadata do not independently prove public publication time.",
    "No probability model, uncertainty intervals, election-accuracy score, or 2026 predictions."
  ],
  "runtime": {
    "python": "3.12.14",
    "numpy": "2.3.5",
    "openpyxl": "3.1.5"
  }
}