{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-21T03:09:18.514949Z",
  "local_planning_date": "2026-10-20",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "census-apportionment-2020",
      "title": "2020 Census apportionment, Table 1",
      "publisher": "U.S. Census Bureau",
      "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table01.pdf",
      "supports": [
        "House seat counts by state",
        "435 voting House seats"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2021-04-26",
      "limitations": "Seat counts do not establish 2026 district boundaries, candidates, or ballot certification."
    },
    {
      "id": "fec-calendar-2026",
      "title": "2026 congressional primary dates and filing deadlines",
      "publisher": "Federal Election Commission",
      "url": "https://www.fec.gov/documents/5910/2026pdates.pdf",
      "supports": [
        "November 3 general election date",
        "States holding Senate elections",
        "Louisiana House November 3 primary and December 12 runoff date"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2026-05-18",
      "limitations": "Dates subject to change; state election offices administer elections. Use later state guidance for exceptions."
    },
    {
      "id": "senate-class-ii",
      "title": "Class II seats with terms expiring January 3, 2027",
      "publisher": "U.S. Senate",
      "url": "https://www.senate.gov/senators/Class_II.htm",
      "supports": [
        "33 regularly scheduled Senate seats",
        "Senate class II state inventory"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "This is a seat-class inventory, not a certified candidate list."
    },
    {
      "id": "senate-class-iii",
      "title": "Class III seats with terms expiring January 3, 2029",
      "publisher": "U.S. Senate",
      "url": "https://www.senate.gov/senators/Class_III.htm",
      "supports": [
        "Florida and Ohio class III seat identification"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Does not itself establish the date of a vacancy election."
    },
    {
      "id": "nga-governors-2026",
      "title": "2026 gubernatorial elections",
      "publisher": "National Governors Association",
      "url": "https://www.nga.org/governors/elections/",
      "supports": [
        "36 state gubernatorial contests",
        "Three additional territorial contests outside initial scope",
        "November 3 general election date"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Association inventory, not a state-certified ballot. Candidate names are deliberately not imported."
    },
    {
      "id": "la-dates-2026",
      "title": "Election dates and upcoming 2026 election information",
      "publisher": "Louisiana Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/election-dates",
      "supports": [
        "November 3 U.S. Senate general election",
        "November 3 open U.S. House primary",
        "Conditional December 12 U.S. House general election"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "House primary and eventual officeholder forecasts require distinct outcome definitions."
    },
    {
      "id": "la-election-rules",
      "title": "How candidates are elected",
      "publisher": "Louisiana Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://www.sos.la.gov/elections-voting/how-candidates-are-elected",
      "supports": [
        "Open House primary majority requirement and subsequent general election",
        "2026 U.S. Senate uses closed party primaries followed by general election",
        "General election plurality rule"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Tie and unopposed-candidate provisions require case-specific review."
    },
    {
      "id": "fl-offices-2026",
      "title": "Offices up for election and retention in 2026",
      "publisher": "Florida Department of State, Division of Elections",
      "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/elections/candidates-committees/offices-up-for-election/",
      "supports": [
        "One U.S. Senate seat on 2026 ballot",
        "All Florida House districts",
        "Governor contest"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2025-04-14",
      "limitations": "Lists the Senate contest under the general election; does not label it a special election."
    },
    {
      "id": "fl-dates-2026",
      "title": "2026 election dates",
      "publisher": "Florida Department of State, Division of Elections",
      "url": "https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/election-dates/",
      "supports": [
        "November 3, 2026 general election date"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2025-08-22",
      "limitations": "A statewide calendar is not a certified candidate list."
    },
    {
      "id": "fl-vacancy-statute",
      "title": "2026 Florida Statutes, section 100.111, filling vacancy",
      "publisher": "Florida Legislature",
      "url": "https://www.flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2026/100.111",
      "supports": [
        "General election to fill the unexpired portion of a qualifying vacancy"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2026",
      "limitations": "Florida legal designation is a general election to fill an unexpired term. Research classification special means a vacancy-term contest here, not a separate date or state legal label."
    },
    {
      "id": "oh-senate-directive",
      "title": "Directive 2025-54: Special United States Senate election",
      "publisher": "Ohio Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://www.ohiosos.gov/assets/directive-2025-54-writ-of-special-election-for-united-states-senate-election.pdf",
      "supports": [
        "November 3, 2026 special Senate election",
        "Unexpired term ending January 3, 2029"
      ],
      "source_as_of": "2025-11-13",
      "limitations": "Candidate nomination and ballot status require separate certified lists."
    },
    {
      "id": "ak-election-information",
      "title": "Election information and ranked-choice general elections",
      "publisher": "Alaska Division of Elections",
      "url": "https://www.elections.alaska.gov/election-information/",
      "supports": [
        "November 3, 2026 general election",
        "Ranked-choice voting for House, Senate, and governor"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Published rules do not supply this project with any candidate probabilities."
    },
    {
      "id": "me-ranked-choice-faq",
      "title": "Ranked-choice voting frequently asked questions",
      "publisher": "Maine Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://www1.maine.gov/sos/elections-voting/ranked-choice-voting-frequently-asked-questions",
      "supports": [
        "Ranked-choice voting in federal general elections",
        "Plurality in governor general election"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Candidate sets and final tabulation schedules need separate verification."
    },
    {
      "id": "ga-calendar-2026",
      "title": "2026 election calendar and highlights",
      "publisher": "Georgia Secretary of State",
      "url": "https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/forms/2026%20Elections%20Calendar.pdf",
      "supports": [
        "November 3 general election",
        "Conditional December 1 general runoff date"
      ],
      "source_as_of": null,
      "limitations": "Complete contest-specific runoff applicability and certification review remain outstanding."
    }
  ],
  "state_house_apportionment": {
    "AL": 7,
    "AK": 1,
    "AZ": 9,
    "AR": 4,
    "CA": 52,
    "CO": 8,
    "CT": 5,
    "DE": 1,
    "FL": 28,
    "GA": 14,
    "HI": 2,
    "ID": 2,
    "IL": 17,
    "IN": 9,
    "IA": 4,
    "KS": 4,
    "KY": 6,
    "LA": 6,
    "ME": 2,
    "MD": 8,
    "MA": 9,
    "MI": 13,
    "MN": 8,
    "MS": 4,
    "MO": 8,
    "MT": 2,
    "NE": 3,
    "NV": 4,
    "NH": 2,
    "NJ": 12,
    "NM": 3,
    "NY": 26,
    "NC": 14,
    "ND": 1,
    "OH": 15,
    "OK": 5,
    "OR": 6,
    "PA": 17,
    "RI": 2,
    "SC": 7,
    "SD": 1,
    "TN": 9,
    "TX": 38,
    "UT": 4,
    "VT": 1,
    "VA": 11,
    "WA": 10,
    "WV": 2,
    "WI": 8,
    "WY": 1
  },
  "regular_senate_states": [
    "AK",
    "AL",
    "AR",
    "CO",
    "DE",
    "GA",
    "IA",
    "ID",
    "IL",
    "KS",
    "KY",
    "LA",
    "MA",
    "ME",
    "MI",
    "MN",
    "MS",
    "MT",
    "NC",
    "NE",
    "NH",
    "NJ",
    "NM",
    "OK",
    "OR",
    "RI",
    "SC",
    "SD",
    "TN",
    "TX",
    "VA",
    "WV",
    "WY"
  ],
  "vacancy_senate_states": [
    "FL",
    "OH"
  ],
  "state_governor_states": [
    "AK",
    "AL",
    "AR",
    "AZ",
    "CA",
    "CO",
    "CT",
    "FL",
    "GA",
    "HI",
    "IA",
    "ID",
    "IL",
    "KS",
    "MA",
    "MD",
    "ME",
    "MI",
    "MN",
    "NE",
    "NH",
    "NM",
    "NV",
    "NY",
    "OH",
    "OK",
    "OR",
    "PA",
    "RI",
    "SC",
    "SD",
    "TN",
    "TX",
    "VT",
    "WI",
    "WY"
  ],
  "excluded_territorial_governors": [
    "GU",
    "MP",
    "VI"
  ],
  "provenance_note": "Official government sources plus the governors association inventory. No third-party forecasts, candidates, polls, or opinions were imported."
}